北京桑拿论坛 洗浴 Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Stable growth rate does not hide the strong demand

Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Stable growth rate does not hide the strong demand

Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Stable growth rate does not hide the strong demand
Event: The company disclosed the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 609 from January to September.35 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.64%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 304.55 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.13%.Among them, Q3 operating income increased by 13.81%, compared with the first half of the year.43 points., An increase of 1 from the second quarter.80 points.Basic income 24.24 yuan.Although the company’s third quarter report was lower than the market’s optimistic expectations, it was overall stable and in line with expected indicators. The actual shipments are close to Q1. According to the calculation of the report, the shipments of Q3 have increased significantly.Q3 received 228 cash in a single season.39 trillion, same as 227 in Q1.58 million U.S. dollars is close, and we think this actually reflects that Q3 launch volume is close to Q1.Based on the income confirmed by the statement, the Q3 Maotai liquor shipments increase by about 1,000 tons every year, which is slightly lower than the market’s optimistic expectations.Excluding changes in advance receipts (the balance of advance receipts at the end of the third quarter decreased by 10 trillion from the end of the first half of the year, which means that revenue recognition is more than positive), our actual actual shipments were slightly lower than the same period last year and the average quarterly shipments in the first half of the yearClose. The fall in the approval price of Moutai reflects that the pain point of price management in price management lies in the channel.In the case that the actual shipment in the third quarter is similar to the off-season in Q2 (compared to Q3 with the Mid-Autumn Festival factor), the approval price of Moutai wine has dropped from 2600+ to around 2200 yuan, which is mainly due to the firm firm price control, clear signal release and channel selectionEffectively, the company won the bid for Wumart and other supermarkets, member-based supermarkets Costco, e-commerce platform Tmall and Suning Tesco listed cheap Moutai, which has a direct impact on dealer expectations, and has a direct effect on curbing the rise of Moutai wine prices and even promoting the decline. We believe that based on the actual delivery volume of Moutai liquor, it is difficult to continue to rapidly increase it. Although parity Moutai is put in more points, the planned internal accumulation ratio is still small in the future. Demand for non-parity Moutai liquor is still strong, and the price of Moutai liquor has further increased.Less likely.It is obvious that the effect of direct water test has appeared, indicating that after the company pinpoints the pain point, the price control ability and effect have improved significantly. The two moats of channel spreads and large advance receipts are wide enough. The tone of production and sales will remain unchanged in the future, and performance stability is still expected.The current ex-factory price of Pufei is 969 yuan, and the market approval price is around 2,200 yuan. Behind the price difference of more than double is strong demand support. In the medium and long term, the rarity of Maotai liquor and the consumption power of high-end liquor support the ex-factory price of Maotai liquor is still very large.Performance space; the balance of advance receipts at the end of September was 112.55 ppm, accounting for about 18% of the first three quarters of revenue. Taking into account the company’s 成都桑拿网 future volume and price growth trends, advance receipts additionally increase the guarantee of performance stability.The company’s overall base liquor production capacity plan supports the finished Moutai liquor around 5 years ago, around 2024. The 2018 annual report revealed that Moutai liquor sales were about 3.In February, the average annual sales volume increased by about 3,500 tons. Investment suggestion: Continue to maintain Buy-A rating.The expected earnings forecast for 2019-21 is 34.34 yuan, 40.22 yuan and 51.19 yuan, adjust 6-month target price to 1299.00 yuan, equivalent to 25x price-earnings ratio in 2021. Risk warning: the market growth rhythm affects quarterly growth; the price adjustment progress exceeds expectations.