北京桑拿论坛 qfelbhol Tiantan Biological (600161): In-depth analysis of Tiantan Biological

Tiantan Biological (600161): In-depth analysis of Tiantan Biological

Tiantan Biological (600161): In-depth analysis of Tiantan Biological

In the short term, the current domestic pulp volume of the blood product industry is mainly driven by albumin demand. It is expected that the terminal demand for albumin will continue to grow steadily.

In the future, the acquisition of pulp station resources and the scale of pulp extraction will still be the key to industry segmentation and competition.

In the medium and long term, after the supply and demand of blood products are gradually balanced, the growth will be driven by the scale of pulp extraction and the variety and product quality.

The competition for the long-term development of blood products will transition from advantages of scale to advantages of diversity, advantages of channels, and advantages of academic promotion.

Tiantan Biological deeply understands and grasps the growth stages and growth drivers of the blood products industry, maintains its leading position in the industry, and has a clear growth path.

The growth of pulp extraction volume is stable: the three major blood pulp extraction upgrades + newly approved pulp stations + old station growth contributions of nearly 610 tons of pulp increase is expected to reach about 2180 tons in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 11 in three years.

3%.

The company has the advantages of expansion of pulp stations, and can continuously obtain new pulp stations, supporting the company’s continued expansion of scale and a solid top of the leader.

Provide sufficient pulp scale and growth momentum before blood product supply and demand balance.

Opening of pulp mixing and new production capacity: The approval of pulp mixing has alleviated the tension in Chengdu Rong production and effectively improved the utilization rate of plasma and capacity.

After the completion of the Yongan blood system construction project, Chengdu Rongrong’s production capacity can be enlarged, which can better bring into play the scale effect. In terms of products, Chengdu Rongsheng Jingbing’s technology upgrades, factor product production, capacity release + yield improvement + product structure rich, the headquarters RongIncome and profits will increase significantly.

R & D driven, overlapping product lines: Chromatographic Static Propionate + Recombinant Coagulation Factors.

Recombinant coagulation factor VIII has a growing market share in China due to its safety and no restrictions on raw materials. The market for coagulation factor VIII is expected to become the company’s heavyweight.

There is much room for growth of static propylene. The company ‘s chromatographic static propylene separation conditions are milder, the product yield is higher, and the product purity is higher. It will become a higher quality standard for domestic static propylene.

Establishing channel advantages and academic promotion ability advantages, the company has basically covered major key terminals in provinces, cities and regions except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and the number of terminals ranks first in China.

Increase the academic promotion of Jing Bing + improve the quality standards, and obtain brand and pricing advantages.

Investment suggestion: clear growth path, high certainty, maintain “Buy-A” rating, 6-month target price of 27.

3 yuan.

The three major blood types and Guizhou Zhongtai’s pulp extraction volume increase, the increase in pulp volume brought by the growth of newly approved pulp stations, and the continuity of the company’s future approval of new pulp stations will support the company’s continued expansion of scale advantages and solid leadership.

Provide sufficient pulp scale and growth momentum before blood product supply and demand balance.
At the same time, the company increased new blood product categories and realized variety upgrades, as well as channel layout and integration of academic promotion teams, consolidating competition in the long-term development of blood product companies, clear development paths, and maintaining industry-leading advantages.

Reflecting the growth of performance, the company’s performance growth points from 2019 to 2020 are the three major blood types and the increase in pulp volume and production capacity of Guizhou Zhongtai, and the profit margin per ton of pulp.After being put into production (factor VIII + Chromatography), the performance is expected to improve significantly.

We expect company 19?
21-year net profit 6.

24/7.

45/9.

7.6 billion, corresponding to EPS 0.

6/0.

71/0.

93, corresponding to the current sustainable PE of 38.

5/32.

3/24.

6x, 6-month target price of 27.

3, equivalent to 38 times the price-earnings ratio in 2020.

Risk warning: product price risk, policy risk, security risk, integration is less than expected risk, the 四川耍耍网 progress of Yongan blood system construction is less than expected risk, new batch of pulp stations is less than expected risk, and research and development progress is less than expected risk.