Jiayuan Technology (688388): Long-term cooperation power leader for important manufacturers of lithium 佛山桑拿网 battery copper foil
The company is an important domestic supplier of lithium battery copper foil: Jiayuan Technology is mainly engaged in the production and sales of lithium battery copper foil, and has achieved revenue in 18 years.
530,000 yuan, an increase of 103 in ten years.
68%; net profit attributable to mothers1.
76 trillion, an increase of 107 in ten years.
The 18-year high growth mainly benefited from the volume of 6μm lithium battery copper foil.
The company is one of the few domestic enterprises that can achieve mass production of 6μm products. The product has even higher profitability (gross margin of 39%), and its main customer is CATL.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles has opened up the copper foil market space: the development of new energy vehicles continues to accelerate, the policy side (point system, multinational fuel vehicle bans), the supply side (automotive companies are accelerating their electrification, and new products are continuously introduced)(Awareness / acceptance improvement) work together to help new energy vehicles replace fuel oil vehicles.
We estimate that global new energy passenger car sales will reach 17.55 million units in 2025, with a 7-year compound strength of 36.
2%; Corresponding to the 44 content of copper foil demand, the average annual composite strength is 26%.
Thinning and thinning is the future trend. A few domestic companies have achieved mass production of 6μm copper foil: The thinning and thinning of copper foil follows the trend of high energy density of batteries.
According to calculations, the energy density of a 260wh / kg lithium battery can be increased by 10% by reducing the thickness from 8μm to 6μm while increasing the target rate by 50%.
At present, foreign companies are leading in ultra-thin copper foil technology, but they are mostly used in the PCB field; the thinnest in the power field can reach 6 μm, and only 3-5 domestic companies including the company can mass produce.
The company’s long-term cooperation power leader and new technology continue to advance: the company’s top five customers include CATL, ATL, BYD, Funeng, Xingheng Power.
With the exception of Funeng, the cooperation time has exceeded 8 years.
Among them, the company ‘s 6μm copper foil purchases about 45-50% of CATL’s similar products, expanding the proportion; it has started cooperation with BYD since its establishment.
In addition, the company is currently actively in reserve4.
5μm, 5μm ultra-thin copper foil to continuously maintain product competitiveness.
Fund-raising projects ease the shortage of production capacity, and the upstream layout will reduce costs and improve quality: the company intends to raise capital9.
Construction of a 600 million USD production line and technology center project.
At most, the company’s production capacity has been maximized to more than 1005 in the past three years. By building a new 5,000-ton power copper foil capacity and rebuilding the old production line, the company can effectively use the capacity to meet downstream demand.Improve the quality of raw materials, while reducing production costs and increasing profits.
Profit forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.
58 yuan (full dilution based on the shares issued by the IPO).
Combining the absolute estimation method and the relative estimation method, we believe that the reasonable estimation interval of the company’s secondary market is 24.
Take the estimated center 27.
10 yuan, corresponding to 19/20 PE estimates are 20x and 18x respectively.
Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales are lower than expected, upstream raw material 武汉夜生活网 prices fluctuate, risk of issuance failure, risk of new technology development, and relatively concentrated customers.